Market Opportunity
Explosive Growth, No Institutional Player
Prediction markets are growing faster than early online brokerages — yet no quantitative fund trades them systematically.
$23.8B
Kalshi 2025 trading volume
$9B+
Polymarket 2024 trading volume
12B+
Contracts traded on Robinhood in 2025
~50%
Americans under 45 who have used prediction markets
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event exchange doing $260M in annual revenue, with volume growing roughly 10× year-over-year. Polymarket crossed $9B in 2024 volume. Robinhood added event contracts in 2025 and already traded 12B+ in its first year.
Despite this scale, no quantitative fund trades these markets systematically. Order flow is dominated by retail. There is no Renaissance, Two Sigma, or DE Shaw of prediction markets. The infrastructure — probability modeling, market making, contract-design advisory — is wide open.
This is the same structural gap that existed in equity options in the 1980s and crypto in 2015: regulated, liquid, growing fast, and institutionally untouched. Prophet Lab is building the quant infrastructure to capture it.