Prophet
The AI-native fund that grows with prediction markets.
Bridging traditional finance and event markets through AI-driven probability extraction, autonomous agents, and closed-loop alpha.
Market Opportunity
Explosive Growth, No Institutional Player
Prediction markets are growing faster than early online brokerages — yet no quantitative fund trades them systematically.
$23.8B
Kalshi 2025 trading volume
$9B+
Polymarket 2024 trading volume
12B+
Contracts traded on Robinhood in 2025
~50%
Americans under 45 who have used prediction markets
The Engine
AI-Native Trading Pipeline
A self-evolving 24/7 system that scans broadly, reasons deeply, and gets smarter after every trade.
Broad Scan
State Dept, UN Security Council, FRED, SEC, NWS, Twitter/X, Reuters — 6 source types monitored 24/7
Contract Pair Discovery
Finds correlated contracts cross-platform — structural mispricings between Kalshi & Polymarket
Real-Time Probability Update
Breaking events instantly update P(event) — e.g., diplomatic tweet → P(conflict ends) shifts in seconds
Human-in-the-Loop
Low-confidence signals pause for review via Telegram. Arb: 5min expiry. Directional: 30min.
Evolve & Auto-Execute
Wrong predictions → reflection → improved priors. Confident patterns graduate to full automation.
Structural Advantage
Why AI-Native Changes Everything
Breadth No Human Can Match
A human analyst covers 5–10 markets. Prophet scans 6 source types and 1,000+ contracts simultaneously, finding non-obvious correlations across exchanges.
Deep Reasoning Across Scenarios
Multi-hop reasoning: 'If Trump tweets X, what does that imply for contract Y given causal constraint Z?' Autonomous tool calls per signal convert raw news into probability-weighted edge.
Compounds With Every Trade
After each resolved contract, the system reflects to identify wrong probability estimates and updates priors. Confident strategies graduate from human-approval to auto-execute.
Competitive Landscape
No One Is Doing This
A $260M-revenue regulated exchange, $9B competitor, and institutional capital flowing in — with zero quantitative infrastructure.
No Dedicated Quant Funds
Renaissance, Two Sigma, DE Shaw — none trade prediction markets systematically. The space is dominated by retail.
No Options-to-Prediction Bridge
Decades of vol surface models and risk-neutral density estimation for equities. None applied to Kalshi or Polymarket.
Huge Market Maker Opportunity
Kalshi's LIP ($5M/month) and Polymarket's $300K/month maker rebates are essentially unclaimed. Near-zero competition.
No Contract Design Advisors
No firm helps corporations structure prediction market hedges. The CFTC Part 40 self-certification process is opaque to non-specialists.
Revenue
Three Compounding Revenue Streams
Each reinforces the others — better systems drive better trading; better track record attracts advisory clients.
Proprietary Trading
- Options → Event Probability arbitrage
- Causal Consistency Arbitrage
- Fundamental Signal Layer
- Closed-Loop Feedback Engine
Market Making
- Two-sided quotes via Avellaneda-Stoikov model
- Kalshi LIP: up to $5M/month incentives
- Polymarket: $300K/month rebates
- Reduced fees + higher position limits
Contract Design Advisory
- Help companies hedge policy exposure
- CFTC Part 40 self-certification guidance
- Co-invest alongside clients
- Retainer + co-investment carry
Team
Quant Trader + AI at Scale
Peter Wei
Founder
- Barclays — Boosted market share 12x via ML, top market maker on Wall Street
- C3.ai — Senior AI Scientist: enterprise AI for Bank of America, AMD
- MS Financial Engineering + MS Computer Science
- Built full-stack Prophet infrastructure; live strategies on Kalshi with real capital deployed
Strategic Advisor
Top-Tier Hedge Fund PM
- Portfolio manager at a top-tier hedge fund
- Former quant trader — event-driven strategies, stochastic process pricing, volatility arbitrage
- Mathematical Olympiad gold medalist
- Long-standing collaboration with Peter
Vision
The AI-Native Fund Thesis
Prediction markets are our proving ground, but the real thesis is larger: AI agents that react to real-world events in real time will transform every event-driven market. By building Prophet, we are developing the infrastructure for how AI agents price, trade, and make decisions under uncertainty — with natural expansion into macro trading, event-driven equities, catastrophe bonds, and any domain where outcomes are binary and information is asymmetric.
Let's Talk
Interested in Prophet?
Whether you're an investor, a potential partner, or a company looking to hedge event risk — we'd love to hear from you.